Variable 4: Is there a problem with internal turmoil and unrest in China?
Depressions begat revolutions. Now it ain’t so simple as that, but there is a big enough correlation here that every time there is a economic downturn, a nation’s leaders should be looking over their...
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Variable 5: What is the degree of U.S. commitment to Taiwan?
The people who are saying with certainty that China is going to invade Taiwan in the next two decades seem to be discounting a lot of factors that would indicate that China would not do so,...
View ArticleVariable 6: What is the size and capabilities of the Chinese Armed Forces?
I think I covered most of this in my previous posts, for example: Invading Taiwan in the next six years – the fight? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). But, let me walk and talk through...
View ArticleWill China invade Taiwan in the next 20 years? Summation:
This post is a summation of my previous ten posts on the subject. We first looked in two posts whether there was a reasonable threat of Taiwan being invaded in the next six years. Our conclusion was...
View ArticleExcess Deaths in China
Still can’t get to the Johns Hopkins site to do my weekly update. Not sure why.In the meantime, let me briefly address the issue of excess deaths in China, as that was not discussed in the Economist...
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Things related to our discussion on invading Taiwan
Over the last month, we did something like eleven posts analyzing the possibilities and the ability of China to invade and occupy Taiwan. The summery post is here:Will China invade Taiwan in the next...
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Pratas Island
Noted an article yesterday: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-debated-attacking-taiwan-controlled-123900171.html Basically, Taiwan is saying that China is considering invading Pratas island in 2024 or...
View ArticleSome Polling on Taiwan
This article showed up on my yahoo news feed that caught my attention: https://news.yahoo.com/poll-almost-9-10-taiwanese-184348279.html Highlights: 86% of Taiwanese oppose “one country, two system”...
View ArticleU.S. Defense Budget for 2022
The U.S. Defense budget was signed into law on Monday. A few things that caught my attention: Increase of 5% (I guess we have to replace all that equipment left behind in Afghanistan). 2.7% pay raise...
View Article“The Games the Marine Corps Plays”
An associate strongly recommended I look at this article. I would recommend the same to our readership: The Games the Marine Corps Plays | Military.com It is written by Gary Anderson of GWU, who I do...
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